Business experts monitor these little-known statistics very closely, as they’re often solid indicators of where the economy is headed in the months ahead:
- The Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI): PCI measures the amount of diesel fuel being purchased at truck stops around the country. The amount of goods carried by these trucks and the frequency of routes give economists a sense of how robust business is flowing.
The good news: the PCI jumped 3.1% between April and May – the largest one-month increase since 1999. - Service sector shipments: The service sector measures the amount of scrap and waste material hauled off by trains every month. This statistic is always relevant because it reflects the rate of production in several industries, most notably manufacturing.
The good news: Waste and scrap shipments hit their highest rate in 16 years last month, a solid indication businesses are ramping up production. - Electric output: The Edison Electric Institute monitors how much electricity the corporate sector uses every week.
The good news: Usage for the first week in June was up nearly 11% from the same week in 2009, a sign of more employees, higher productivity and increased work hours.
What do you think? Are these all signs of a rebounding economy, or simply a reflection of businesses fighting an uphill battle to boost production and staff, despite ailing revenues?
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section below.
Source: “These Below-the-Radar Indicators May Signal Growth,”
by David Bogoslaw, BusinessWeek, 6/15/10.
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Tags: business, economy, Edison Electric Institute, Finance, PCI, Recession
July 27th, 2010 at 2:17 pm
Dead cat bounce. The socialistic programs have only been announced, and the cost has been deliberately minimized for easier passage. The real price will be paid as these programs begin to impact the public, and the new programs (VAT Tax, Cap & Trade, etc) continue to be piled on. BTW, electric usage has fallen for two consecutive years… the first time that’s happened since WWII. One of the biggest sectors hit, the industrial sector, historically does not ever recover.
July 27th, 2010 at 5:06 pm
One wonders how much is represented by 3.1% in the PCI. Waste and scrap metal numbers could just be industries completely closing, not ramping up production. Lastly, I would have to know more about collection techniques and the area covered by Edison to be comfortable with their interpretation of upward electrical usage.
Given the horrific nationalization of many of our businesses (GM, real estate, now health) these numbers are not very useful. The Feds are unable to run any business efficiently or with any innovation. They ignore budget constraints and have run up historic levels of debt.
Unless and until the Federal government learns to be responsible, I have little hope for our economy. Anti-business legislation and social entitlement programs have effectively crippled our economy for the next century unless radical change is brought about by voters.
July 27th, 2010 at 5:22 pm
I find it hard to believe that the waste and scrap shipments are the highest in 16 years when unemployment is still sluggish. Someone has to be creating that waste and it doesn’t seem to be workers making things. The consumption of diesel fuel is an indicator that things are on the move but is not putting money in the cash register……..except for the truck stops. I have become highly distrustful of the government and other agencies trying to put out “feel-good”, “things are booming”, “things are back on track” messages to “make” people think things are better. If the government keeps extending unemployment benefits, they’ve created another wave of citizens dependent on the government. If you have not worked in six months or in some cases a year, it has become a routine. There are some people that can’t hold a job for that length of time. Brace yourselves folks………..
July 27th, 2010 at 5:50 pm
I don’t know if I completely trust these figures to indicate a comeback. But, I also disagree with the commenters who blame the economy on the current administration. Pro-business legislation led to the Enron and the energy bubble, the IT bubble, subprime mortgage lending and the banking bubble–not to mention tax deductions for companies that relocate overseas–all of which have done more harm to the economy than anything government regulation has ever done. Look at what BP has done to the Gulf, the looting committed by military contractors in Iraq, and how the coal mining companies evade mine safety and tell me that private industry is more trustworthy than a democracy. I’ll take a bumbling bureaucracy over unregulated greed anytime.