There are two things you can count on towards the middle of October every year:

• The malls become awash in holiday decorations, and

• Economists and retail groups  start predicting how strong a shopping season we’ll have.

And by early January, those decorations will look a little worse for wear, and we’ll know how accurate those retail predictions were.

Maybe not this year.

2 key variables at play

Chances are those Christmas trees and red bows will still be drooping in the department stores.

But we may not have a quick answer on how many people made purchases in those department stores this holiday season.

It could take us a little longer this year to assess whether the season of giving will give 2009 an economic lift.

That’s due to two critical variables identified in the NPD Group’s 8th annual Holiday Retail Outlook survey:

Variable # 1: When folks will start spending. This year the percentage
of people saying they wouldn’t start shopping until December or the last minute increased. That doesn’t usually bode well for overall totals.

Variable #2: What shoppers’ states of mind are. Nearly half of consumers say the state of the economy will influence how much they’ll spend. But the question remains: Will they continue to keep their wallets welded shut or finally grow tired of being frugal and spend away, even on credit? Only time will tell.